The hottest PTA high adjustment has little room fo

2022-08-12
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PTA high-level adjustment has little room for short-term decline

one week Market Overview:

PTA high-level adjustment this week, positions decreased, and single day fluctuations increased. The spot price also adjusted this week after rising continuously last week. The price in East China fell on Friday. The first-line brand sellers made a low firm offer of 9700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream negotiation was yuan/ton. The spot market quotation reached 9900 yuan on Wednesday, which also led to the rise of the futures price. However, the failure to rush up the 10000 yuan level resulted in a sharp reduction in positions, which was reflected in the profit taking situation of high-level bulls and the pressure on the 10000 yuan front line

upstream market:

after the soaring PX market last week, it has converged this week. On Thursday, China announced to raise the price of refined oil, and the crude oil of the United States fell sharply. The quotation of naphtha in Asia fell with the crude oil, which also led to the slight adjustment of PX price to 1685 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea on Friday. At present, for crude oil, the restraining effect of China's rising oil price on demand in the short term will not be reflected. Seasonal and geopolitical factors will still stimulate oil prices to rise. If adjusted, the decline will not be large. At present, the demand for naphtha in Asia is still strong, and there is little room for it to fall with the trend of crude oil, and the reduction of its products such as toluene, PX and other aromatic products will not be too large. At present, the domestic PX production capacity is 3.825 million tons/year, and 3million tons/year must be imported to meet domestic demand. The domestic paraxylene supply shortage will not show any significant change before 2010. Cost provides strong support for PTA price

downstream market:

reduction: due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB and the reduction of the textile export tax rebate policy, the export competitiveness of the textile industry has been declining, and the whole industry has fallen into a trough in 2008. Even with the arrival of the traditional peak season in summer, the demand has increased, which cannot change the dilemma faced by the double chute illumination test block of the whole industry in the long term. However, the sudden 5.12 earthquake disaster and post disaster resettlement have created a large demand for tents and textile clothing in the short term, which has improved the demand of the industry in the short term. In terms of cost, the rising price of PTA has brought great pressure to polyester enterprises, and the industry also has the trend of limiting production and ensuring price, passively following the rise of PTA price. The quotation of polyester chips and polyester related products remained stable this week. The general acceptance quotation of filament grade semi Matt polyester chips in East China market was 11800 yuan/ton in March, the general delivery transaction price of polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 11900 yuan/ton, and the quotation of many varieties of polyester fibers with characteristics such as non oxidizable polyester fibers remained stable this week after rising last week

industry dynamics

pta device operation rate is still not high, maintained at about 70%. Zheng Shangsuo's registered warehouse receipts continued to decrease by more than 2000 this week. At present, 14000 sheets are less than half of the previous level, reflecting the manufacturer's production willingness is still not high. Current load details of PTA manufacturers (according to media reports):

1 A 650000 ton PTA plant of Yisheng Petrochemical was started up. The 600000 ton PTA plant of Ningbo Mitsubishi Chemical was shut down for some reason in the middle of the year, and now it has resumed operation. The average load in June was around 70%

after a 900000 ton PTA unit in Zhuhai resumed operation at the beginning of the month, it was shut down again for some reason in the near future. It is planned to shut down for about 10 days, and the maintenance of the 600000 ton unit in phase I was postponed

3. Xianglu Petrochemical PTA 1.5 million ton unit is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance for about 20 days in early June, and it is possible to expand the capacity by 200000 tons

4. A set of pta6 million ton unit of Hualian Sanxin has been scheduled for shutdown and maintenance since the end of early May. Recently, it has resumed operation, and a set of EPTA unit will then be scheduled for maintenance

5. Yangzi Petrochemical restarted a 650000 ton/year unit in early May. A 350000 T/a unit has not been started

6. Yizheng Chemical fiber line 2 is scheduled to be overhauled in about 15 days from January. The 400000 PTA unit of Shanghai Petrochemical will be overhauled in about 25 days from late April. Luoyang Petrochemical 325000 ton unit will be overhauled from April 24, and the current start-up time will be postponed to around July 15

7. Zhongmei and units 1 and 2 are still in shutdown. The 400000 ton new unit No. 4 of Taihua No. 4 plant is planned to be postponed to July

8. The overhaul of a 1million ton PTA device in Taiguang, South Korea has been completed; A set of accessories with an annual output of 550000 in Sannan, South Korea, is an important part of the universal experimental machine. The ton PTA device will be overhauled for one month from May 5

9. Due to PX supply problems, the current operating rate of Mitsui in Thailand is maintained at about 80%, and that of indorama is maintained at about%

future outlook:

at present, the upstream cost remains high, and there is little room for the spot price to fall, limiting the space for the futures price to fall. The stability of the downstream polyester market price also supports the PTA futures price. In the early stage, a certain trading volume was accumulated at the front line of 9500 yuan, which was supported by the futures price at this price. Next week, if crude oil breaks through the shock range of 130~140 US dollars and goes up, PTA prices can see the high line, and pay attention to the pressure of 10000 yuan

px and crude oil futures price

px and crude oil futures price trend chart. (source: CSC futures)

PX Korea FOB NYMEX crude oil futures price

PX Korea FOB NYMEX crude oil futures price trend chart. (source: CSC futures)

PTA spot and downstream product prices

PTA spot and downstream product price trend chart. (source: CSC futures)

registered warehouse receipts and PTA index

trend chart of registered warehouse receipts and PTA index. (source: CSC futures)

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