The hottest PTA jump broke through the consolidati

PTA jumped through the consolidation range and is expected to continue to rise in the future.

after two months of hesitation in the 7600-8000 range, the main contract ta1101 of PTA finally chose to jump out of the consolidation range. Technically, this gap is a breakthrough gap, which is a relatively stable bullish signal. PTA is expected to continue to challenge the high price based on this gap in the future

the weak dollar policy is beneficial to crude oil

the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate unchanged after the Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate meeting last week, and reiterated that it would maintain an abnormally low interest rate for a long time; Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke hinted on Friday that he would expand the scale of quantitative easing if necessary. The market generally believes that the post meeting statement of the Federal Reserve has opened up space for further easing monetary policy. At the same time, Bernanke's speech revealed his disappointment with the effect of the current policy. Nearly all control parameters and measurement results can be displayed in real time on the large screen LCD. The period data show that the real estate and employment markets still do not have major material damage and failure principles and influencing factors. Using computer programming technology, This will promote the Federal Reserve to accelerate the resumption of quantitative easing policy. Compared with other major economies, the U.S. policy is relatively radical. The market generally believes that the resumption of quantitative easing policy makes the dollar face greater downward pressure. The current weak dollar is obviously in the interests of the United States. The dollar index fell below the strong resistance level after 80 is still not optimistic. The weakening of the dollar has a greater support for commodities, especially crude oil

the U.S. crude oil inventory report released by the U.S. Department of energy (EIA) on September 22 showed that crude oil inventory increased by 970000 barrels to 358.34 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels to 226.6 million barrels, refined oil inventory increased by 347000 barrels to 174.85 million barrels, and Energy Inventory continued to rise. In the early stage, due to the leakage of an important oil pipeline, the crude oil inventory once fell briefly, but after the pipeline was repaired, the inventory rose again, indicating that sudden factors cannot fundamentally eliminate the huge inventory pressure. At present, the accelerated decline of the US dollar directly benefits crude oil, but in the face of the historical peak inventory, market funds do not dare to enter the market easily to do long. The CFTC position report shows that there is little difference in the positions of non-commercial funds. Recently, the negative correlation between the dollar and crude oil has decreased significantly. A weak dollar can only provide a bottom for crude oil prices, but it is not enough to be a reason for its sharp rise

the price fluctuation of crude oil brings not only the price comparison effect of commodity prices to the market, but also reflects the mentality of the market for later economic recovery. The trend strength of crude oil requires two conditions: one is that the global economy shows a sustained recovery, and the other is that its inventory has fallen significantly. These two conditions are not independent, and they often go hand in hand. The prospect of the global economy is still on a benign development track on the whole, and the opportunities for short-term sharp turnaround and trend improvement are very small. Supported by the weak dollar, the author believes that crude oil will show an oscillation trend

the growth rate of downstream polyester products accelerated, and PTA demand increased

in August, the added value of the textile industry increased by 11.6% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than that in July; The export delivery value increased by 18.1%, 0.6 percentage points faster than that in July; Among the main products, the output of yarn, cloth and clothing increased by 15.3%, 14.7% and 20.8% respectively year-on-year, and the output of chemical fiber increased by 9.2% year-on-year. In June, the added value of the textile industry increased by 12.2%, accelerating by 3.7 percentage points year-on-year; The export delivery value increased by 16.9% year-on-year, 9.3% higher than the same period in 2008; Among the main products, the output of yarn, cloth and clothing increased by 16.2%, 17.4% and 18.3% year-on-year respectively, and the output of chemical fiber increased by 13.9%

the prosperity of the textile industry has effectively driven the price rise of raw materials. Recently, the domestic lint market has increased at an alarming rate. The mainstream quotation of mainstream grade 3 lint has exceeded 21000 yuan/ton. In front of the record cotton price, the substitution effect of polyester cotton has been significantly enhanced. According to some textile mills, polyester consumption has been significantly increased in the product lines that can be adjusted. This additional demand has broken the long-term equilibrium of the polyester market. The price of major polyester products, especially polyester staple blended with cotton, has increased rapidly. The increase in recent January exceeded 2500 yuan, and now it is close to 12000 yuan/ton, setting a new high in the year. Soaring product prices have led to high profits for polyester manufacturers and high polyester load, which will certainly increase the demand for upstream raw material PTA

pta spot market is strong. Due to the centralized maintenance of many PTA manufacturers in the early stage, traders get few sources of goods and consume more inventory in the early stage. Coupled with the recent booming production and sales of polyester products, buyers' enthusiasm has significantly increased. Sellers are not in a hurry to sell, and they are reluctant to sell multiple offers. At present, the intention of sporadic offers in the internal offer is close to 8000 yuan. In terms of PTA external shipments, Taiwan's sporadic offers are $950, and the bullish sentiment in the spot market is high, Short term spot prices are hard to fall back. Compared with crude oil, PX, the direct raw material of PTA, has also risen strongly recently. At present, it has regained its foothold at the $1000 mark. The profits of PTA manufacturers have been squeezed to a certain extent, and PTA manufacturers have a strong position in the chemical fiber industry chain. In view of the current upstream and downstream performance, it can be predicted that the listing prices of PTA mainstream manufacturers will rise significantly in October, which will be launched in the near sun, and traders will certainly take the opportunity to push prices

summary

pta industrial chain has a rare situation of upstream and downstream resonance, and there is a great probability that the price center of gravity will continue to move up. We can pay attention to the following aspects in the later trend: first, the current trend of crude oil is relatively mild, but from past experience, the price of petrochemical products often starts before crude oil. At present, this situation is happening. The price of major petrochemical products has increased significantly recently, and it remains to be seen whether it can drive the price rise of the petrochemical chain. Second, the bull market of agricultural products has begun. Whether the rising price of agricultural products will drive the price rise of all bulk commodities is a matter of concern. There is a characteristic of commodity bull market, that is, it is often accompanied by inflation and conducted in the mode of agricultural products - industrial products - metals. It is worth paying attention to whether PTA will act after the price of agricultural products rises. Third, the recent warming of the domestic real estate market will lead to more stringent secondary regulation. Policy uncertainty is still the biggest hidden danger of PTA's strength

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content