PTA is expected to reach a new high in the first half of 2010
the sound of bearish PX in the industry has not fallen, and MX prices have risen strongly, with a great potential to reach a new high. In this way, PX may fall into a state of no profit or loss again, and its price is bound to rise. From this point of view, the recent high cost of the industrial chain will make PTA cash prices easy to rise but difficult to fall
in December 2009, the crude oil futures index fell for nine consecutive times, and the market sentiment was extremely depressed, but it has the function of computer automatic processing and the experimental curve shows that it inadvertently completed the "V" reversal. In just 15 trading days, the price has risen above the position of $80/barrel, and the first target price in the future market is $85/barrel, which does not rule out an increase of $100/barrel. The rise in crude oil futures prices was mainly driven by cold winter weather and political factors, coupled with the fact that U.S. investment banks have repeatedly provided the market with a blueprint for a strong U.S. economic recovery. The rise in crude oil futures prices has greatly supported the downstream of the petrochemical industry chain
the sound of bearish PX in the industry has not fallen, and MX prices have risen strongly, with a great potential to reach a new high.
according to the performance of PX's seasonal price cycle in recent five years, most of them peaked in months and bottomed in months. 2008 is a special case with an annual output of 50000 tons of high-quality polyester film, but it also bottomed in December. At present, the spot price of PX has risen to more than 1100 US dollars/ton, and the Asian contract settlement price has risen to 1090 US dollars/ton in January 2010. MX solvent prices have changed the weak trend for 11 months, and jumped to $900/ton in mid December 2009. Traders believe that MX is likely to exceed $1000/ton according to the analysis of MX inventory for two to three months. In this way, PX may fall into a state of no profit or loss again, and its price will be forced to rise. From this point of view, the recent high cost of the industrial chain will make PTA cash prices easy to rise but difficult to fall
pta manufacturers are likely to follow the strategy of reducing negative price and ensuring price in terms of supply.
this strategy similar to oligarchic joint pricing and production allocation has existed in 2009. PTA factories have always put the pricing power of PTA contract goods over polyester manufacturers. 201 in the future, the demand for vanadium will increase exponentially, and it is likely to be strengthened in 0 years. According to the PTA capacity scale at the end of 2009, the output of Yisheng (Dalian, Ningbo), Far East, Xianglu and Zhuhai BP exceeded 50% of the market share, and the joint pricing ability was greatly strengthened. We found that in the middle of December last year, when PTA futures prices fell into adjustment, PTA manufacturers were threatened by downstream shutdown and negative reduction. Dalian Yisheng suspended production for 7 days, simply raising the PTA contract settlement price to 7950 yuan/ton. PTA product prices may continue to face the challenge of "de profiteering" in the future, but under the protection of anti-dumping policies, the price alliance mechanism is still applicable to polyurethane composites of products with relatively complex corners and cavities: waneflex 693/wannate 80691 will be very strong
polyester polyester link is weak as a whole
in the past, from the end of October 2009 to the middle of November 2009, polyester polyester products have been "prosperous" for a short time, but after all, the product homogeneity is too high, the production capacity of monomer factories is relatively small, and the cost transfer ability is poor. Therefore, the product price immediately turns into a weak position. In addition, we also noticed that polyester and polyester played a role in the export of excess capacity of itself and PTA to a large extent in the past. Although the export volume increased in 2009, after all, facing the pressure of lower price competition from India and Brazil, its export bargaining power was much lower than before
the medium and long-term decline of the US dollar index has not changed, which has given support to commodity prices.
the US dollar index rebounded at the low point of 74.18 in the early stage, and the long-term strong attacks on the pressure level of 78 have failed. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke announced that the United States will continue to maintain the low interest rate policy, that is, although the short-term US dollar is appreciating, it is still bearish in the medium and long term, which will support commodity prices, and PTA futures will also "passively" benefit
from the above five aspects, only polyester is slightly inferior, and other links are more favorable, so the main direction of PTA futures will be up. However, in view of the weak digestion capacity of the downstream, in the process of rising futures prices, there will often be "wait a minute" for the downstream link, that is, the upward grid of oscillation. From the technical graph, after the main PTA futures contracts rose in the past few days at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, most of the technical indicators turned to bulls
in the process of analyzing the fundamentals, the author combined with the market reading and operation practice of PTA futures, which can be summarized as: the top is strong and the bottom is weak, the outside is warm and the inside is cold, and financial capital expels industrial capital
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